War, Bond Prices, and Public Opinion [electronic resource] How Did the Amsterdam Bond Market Perceive the Belligerents' War Effort During World War One?.
Material type:
TextSeries: Economy and HistoryPublication details: Tübingen Mohr Siebeck, 2021Description: 1 online resource (337 p.)ISBN: 3161595378; 9783161595370Subject(s): Bond market -- Netherlands -- Amsterdam -- History -- 20th century | World War, 1914-1918 -- Economic aspectsGenre/Form: EBSCO eBooks | Electronic books. DDC classification: 900 LOC classification: HG5570.A4Online resources: EBSCOhost Description based upon print version of record.
Cover -- Title -- Preface -- Table of contents -- List of tables -- List of figures -- List of abbreviations -- I. Introduction -- 1. World War One as a study object of the economic historian -- 2. The war and sources on how it was perceived by the public -- 3. Capital market data as an alternative indicator of perception -- 3.1. Bond prices -- how new an indicator? -- 3.2. What do bond prices say? -- 3.3. Agnostic event analysis -- 3.4. Pros and cons of the "capital market data approach to perception" -- 4. Study design -- 4.1. Research questions -- 4.2. Why Amsterdam?
4.3. Structure of the study -- 4.4. Placing the study -- II. Historical background, sources, and data -- 1. The Netherlands and World War One -- 2. Sources on sovereign bonds traded in Amsterdam -- 2.1. Amsterdam bond prices -- 2.2. Additional bond price and miscellaneous data -- 3. Description of the created sovereign bond database -- 3.1. The Amsterdam cross-section of sovereign bonds -- 3.2. Market price indices and liquidity -- 3.3. Representative bonds versus country indices -- 3.4. Comparative market development and cross-trading -- 4. Potential and limitations of the database
4.1. Time frame -- 4.2. Price formation -- 4.3. Capital market regulation -- 4.4. Who were the investors? -- III. Turning points in the perception of the Great Powers' war effort -- 1. The problem -- 2. Which breaks have been detected so far? -- 3. How timetable analysis can help -- 4. Data selection -- 5. Empirical findings -- 5.1. Shifting mean regressions as the technical point of departure -- 5.2. Turning points in investors' perception at a glance -- 5.3. Explaining turning points in the major powers' series -- 5.4. Explaining turning points in the minor powers' series
6. Checking for the turning points' robustness -- 6.1. Including economic variables -- 6.2. Results of the robustness check -- 7. Discussion -- 7.1. Turning points versus blips -- the example of Germany -- 7.2. Agnostic turning points versus turning points "informed by historiography" -- 7.3. Simple sovereign bonds-based perception indices -- IV. Perception of alliance credibility -- 1. The problem -- 2. Alliance formation before and during the war -- 2.1. The various alliances at a glance -- 2.2. Measuring the alliances' strength -- 3. Alliance credibility -- 4. Data selection
5. Empirical findings on a "global" test -- 5.1. Starting from a simple approximation of co-movement -- correlation coefficients -- 5.2. Do we find cointegrating relationships? -- 6. Empirical findings on a "sub-periods" test -- 6.1. Correlation coefficients once more -- 6.2. Was perceived credibility unstable? -- 7. Discussion -- 7.1. Measuring the degree of alliance integration -- 7.2. What can Granger-causality tell? -- V. Conclusions -- 1. Turning points summary -- 2. Have historians missed out on major events? -- 3. Alliance perception summary -- 4. Outlook -- List of sources and references
Primary sources -- Dutch historical newspapers/journals/handbooks/laws
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