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Transformation of the economies of Iran and Russia under the new coronavirus outbreak E. Rasoulinezhad

By: Rasoulinezhad, EhsanMaterial type: ArticleArticleContent type: Текст Media type: электронный Other title: Трансформация экономик Ирана и России в условиях вспышки нового коронавируса [Parallel title]Subject(s): Иран | Россия | экономика | COVID-19 | политика | падение цен на нефть | экономическая трансформация | 2020 | коронавирусGenre/Form: статьи в журналах Online resources: Click here to access online In: Вестник Томского государственного университета. Экономика № 51. С. 232-241Abstract: The new coronavirus outbreak has created a serious problem for the economies of Iran and Russia, which are experiencing sanctions and low oil prices. In this article, the author tries to explain the impact of the new coronavirus outbreak on the economies and politics of Iran and Russia. The major results show that the three challenges associated with sanctions, the shock of global oil prices, and the new coronavirus outbreak can lead to different scenarios for the future of Iran and Russia. Eight different scenarios (slow economic growth, economic prosperity, weak recession, economic recovery, medium recession, economic stagnation, strong recession, and economic transformation) are identified and explained by combinations of these three issues. Regarding the current low oil prices (due to the pandemic and the Saudi price war), Western sanctions against Iran and Russia, and also uncertainty about the end of the coronavirus, scenario No. 8 (economic transformation) will be the most likely situation for the economies of Russia and Iran. As the results of this scenario, the digitalization of the economies in these two countries will be improved, and the role of governments in economic mechanisms will be higher than before the coronavirus outbreak. In addition, regionalization and Asianization will be accelerated to reduce the effect of sanctions.
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The new coronavirus outbreak has created a serious problem for the economies of Iran and Russia, which are experiencing sanctions and low oil prices. In this article, the author tries to explain the impact of the new coronavirus outbreak on the economies and politics of Iran and Russia. The major results show that the three challenges associated with sanctions, the shock of global oil prices, and the new coronavirus outbreak can lead to different scenarios for the future of Iran and Russia. Eight different scenarios (slow economic growth, economic prosperity, weak recession, economic recovery, medium recession, economic stagnation, strong recession, and economic transformation) are identified and explained by combinations of these three issues. Regarding the current low oil prices (due to the pandemic and the Saudi price war), Western sanctions against Iran and Russia, and also uncertainty about the end of the coronavirus, scenario No. 8 (economic transformation) will be the most likely situation for the economies of Russia and Iran. As the results of this scenario, the digitalization of the economies in these two countries will be improved, and the role of governments in economic mechanisms will be higher than before the coronavirus outbreak. In addition, regionalization and Asianization will be accelerated to reduce the effect of sanctions.

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